JAPAN NRG
WEEKLY
8
, 2021
JAPAN NRG
WEEKLY
February 8, 2021
NEWS
TOP
ENERGY TRANSITION & POLICY
ELECTRICITY MARKETS
OIL, GAS & MINING
ANALYSIS
HIGH COSTS AND GEOGRAPHY HINDER
JAPAN’S CARBON CAPTURE TECH AMBITIONS
In a bid to realize carbon neutrality by 2050, Japan’s Green Growth Strategy spelled out highly ambitious targets in the field of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), describing the technology as a game-changer. The Strategy even laid out a vision of gaining 30% of the global CCS market, which may be worth ¥10 trillion ($95.5 billion) by mid-century. The introduction of CCS would help allay the government’s unease with making Japan too reliant on renewable energy. Such concerns grew this January. But what is the current status of this technology and when will it be applied?
HYDRO, GEOTHERMAL, AND BIOMASS TO BE
MOVED INTO THE NEW FIP PRICING SCHEME
Hydro, geothermal and biomass power sources are able to move to the new Feed-in-Premium (FIP) electricity pricing scheme from April 2022, according to a key expert panel advising METI. The shift to FIP indicates that the levelized cost of production from those sources is starting to drop in Japan and, in some cases, approach spot market prices. The change will also prove to be a divisive moment in renewables, making it harder for the small operators to survive.
GLOBAL VIEW
Daily wind power generation in the U.S. hit an all-time high of 17% of the total and the country added record wind capacity – as did China. South Korea plans to build an 8.2 GW wind farm. Oil consumption is due to hit pre-Covid levels by August. U.S. rare earths firm plans to list.
EVENT REVIEW
The Renewable Energy Institute held its annual summit.
2021 EVENT CALENDAR
Industry / political events related to Japan energy.
DATA Gas, power, and oil stats
JAPAN NRG WEEKLY
PUBLISHER
K. K. Yuri Group
Editorial Team
Yuriy Humber (Editor-in-Chief)
Tom O’Sullivan (Japan, Middle East, Africa)
John Varoli (Americas)
Regular Contributors
Mayumi Watanabe (Japan)
Daniel Shulman (Japan)
Damon Evans (Indonesia)
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NEWS:
ENERGY TRANSITION & POLICY
Government could plough ¥1 trillion into battery development
(Diamond Online, Feb. 1)
NEDO to run government’s ¥2 trillion Green Innovation Fund
(Japan NRG, Feb. 4)
Tepco joins Scandinavian trial to bring floating wind farms to Japan
(Asia Nikkei, Feb. 5)
TAKEAWAY: Japan’s waters are known to be deeper than offshore wind areas utilized in Europe, which makes similar developments around Japan costly and more technologically challenging. Floating wind technology is seen as a long-term answer, though the Japanese government’s Green Energy Strategy does not envisage floating wind becoming a part of the nation’s energy mix until the 2040s. The Denmark project may suggest that the govt.’s timeline is conservative.
Government to set a consumption target of 3 million tons of ammonia by 2030
(Nikkei Shimbun, Feb. 7)
TAKEAWAY: Ammonia is 30% more expensive than LNG and 50% more expensive than coal. Japan hopes that higher import volumes will help to push down the cost of ammonia level with LNG by 2030.
Chiyoda-led group develops technology to transport hydrogen at room temperature
(Nikkei, Feb 1)
TAKEAWAY: The Japanese group has been testing MCH as a carrier for hydrogen for about a year with trial shipments of MCH coming from Brunei. The delivered hydrogen was then tested in gas turbines in Japan. While this seems like a breakthrough, the use of MCH as a carrier has been known about for some time, and the real breakthrough will be in the economics of the scheme. The challenge for the Chiyoda-led group will be to show that ships carrying mostly toluene and some hydrogen are not expending more energy in transit than they’re delivering.
Investment funds, consultants vie for ¥3 quadrillion green market
(Diamond Online, Feb. 1)
Diesel engines are not evil and have a big role to play in energy transition
(FACTA, February 2021 edition)
Hitachi Zosen sign contract with Japan’s JAXA to use lithium battery in space
(New Business News, Feb. 2)
ENEOS partners with E-thermo and JX Nippon Oil & Gas on waste heat capture
(Kabushiki Shimbun, Feb. 3)
Blind spots plague hydrogen policy as shortage of young engineers bites
(Toyo Keizai Plus, Feb. 6)
METI wants cheaper power storage as 350,000 homes expected to have battery by 2030
(Denki Shimbun, Feb 3)
TAKEAWAY: At this point, it still seems optimistic to consider that households covering close to 1% of the population will have power storage within 10 years. And yet, development in batteries, as highlighted in other news items, is coming faster than forecast and the switch to renewables and power storage could come all at once. In fact, by 2040, Japan may have renewables account for 70% of its installed power capacity, according to estimates from Rystad Energy. While renewable energy has traditionally suffered from low utilization rates due to its intermittency, if the battery storage side of the equation moves quickly, Rystad’s estimate will mean that well over 50% of the country’s electricity will also be coming from renewable sources by 2040.
Mitsubishi Heavy restructures turbine operation, focuses on marketing
(Nikkei, Feb. 1)
J-Power to produce hydrogen from lignite
(New Energy Business News, Feb. 4)
INPEX begins testing of a solar-powered hydrogen production facility in Australia
(Company statement, Jan. 27)
Teijin ties up with UK fuel cell maker, IE, to sell products in Japan
(New Business News, Feb. 3)
NEWS:
POWER MARKETS
No. of operable nuclear reactors |
33 | |||
of which |
applied for restart |
25 | ||
approved by regulator |
16 | |||
restarted |
9 | |||
in operation today |
4 | |||
|
able to use MOX fuel |
4 | ||
No. of nuclear reactors under construction |
3 | |||
No. of reactors slated for decommissioning |
27 | |||
of which |
completed work |
1 | ||
started process |
4 | |||
|
yet to start / not known |
22 |
Spot Electricity Prices
Source: Company websites, JANSI and JAIF, as of Feb. 1, 2021
Japan to make it easier to buy certificates proving use of non-fossil fuel electricity
(NHK, Feb. 5)
OPINION: What was behind the energy crisis in Japan? Not the cold or solar power
(JB Press, Feb. 6)
TAKEAWAY: This is a fraction of the many debates that are currently taking place inside Japan about who is to blame for the events in early January, when there was a shortage of LNG stocks in and prices of both LNG and electricity jumped to historic levels. The aim of the big power utilities, which are supported by the “traditional” energy block inside METI, is to show that these companies are focused on security of power supply and deliver no matter what. The deeper aim is to cast doubt on electricity market liberalization and to paint the renewables power providers as incapable of standing up to the plate when it counts.
In Japan, security of supply is valued highly enough for clients to accept higher costs. However, the arguments of the transitional energy lobby and the Keidanren-affiliated economists and talking heads do not seem to add up. While it is true that some solar and hydro power was down on several days, the main difference this year compared to last year and other previous years is that: A) there was little nuclear capacity online this January, and B) a surprisingly high number of gas-fired plants were offline at the start of the year. The latter may be due to the big electricity utilities misjudging demand during a pandemic-induced lockdown, or planning based on a higher nuclear component. Either way, the big power companies should not be exempt from the scrutiny.
Incumbent power utilities losing grip on industry, but still playing METI’s nuclear game
(Zaiten, March edition)
METI Minister confirms commitment to nuclear energy in Japan
(FT, Feb. 2)
Work begins to remove deformed Fukushima fuel rods
(BS 1-BS News, Feb. 5)
Idemitsu launches carbon-free electricity plan
(New Energy Business News, Feb. 5)
Osaka Gas may build wind farm in Hokkaido
(Nikkei, Feb. 3)
ENEOS to participate in Yamagata wind project
(Kensetsu Shimbun, Feb. 5)
NEWS:
OIL, GAS & MINING
Japan Oil Price:
$44.46
/ barrel
Japan (JLC) LNG Price:
$7.00
/ mmbtu
ENEOS forum: FGE’s Feshariki says “2024-28” to be golden age for oil
(Sekiyu Shimbun, Feb. 5)
Mitsubishi, Mitsui executives say LNG has a future despite energy transition
(Diamond, Feb. 3)
LNG price weakens as shortages ease
(Nikkei, Feb. 1)
Sumitomo sells out of U.S. oil sector
(Asia Nikkei, Feb. 4)
INPEX expands interest in U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil fields
(Company statement, Feb. 2)
COSMO to join bio-jet fuel trial
(New Energy Business News, Feb. 5)
ANALYSIS
BY TAKEHIRO MASUTOMO
High Costs and Geographical Disadvantage
Hinder Japan’s CCS Ambitions
In a bid to realize carbon neutrality by 2050, Japan’s Green Growth Strategy has spelled out highly ambitious targets in the field of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), describing the technology as a game-changer. The Strategy even laid out a vision of gaining 30% of the global CCS market, which may be worth ¥10 trillion ($95.5 billion) by mid-century.
What’s more, the introduction of CCS would allay the government’s unease with making Japan too reliant on renewable energy. Such concerns grew during this January’s energy crunch, which saw output from solar and hydro plants struggle to meet demand. It’s hoped that CCS can help keep some of Japan’s thermal power plants and industry in operation while still meeting CO2 reduction targets.
The Strategy envisions development of highly efficient CO2 capture technology by 2030. Yet for despite the ambitious talk Japan’s development of CCS is at a precarious stage. We take a look at the latest developments.
Source: Japan CCS Co.
How things stand
In January 2021, during his first policy address to Parliament, Prime Minister Suga vowed to accelerate the development of carbon recycling, a process related to CCS, while promising to work on carbon pricing. Two key ministries driving the process are METI and the Ministry of Environment (MOE).
Japan has a strong foundation in the field. Its companies have built facilities to separate and capture highly-concentrated CO2 – at least for the purpose of extracting crude oil (a process known as enhanced oil recovery, EOR) and chemical application. Japan has the top share in terms of building carbon capture plants, and its scientific academia and industry have registered the most CCS-relevant patents worldwide, according to the Strategy, released on Dec. 25.
However, unlike other early movers in CCS, such as the U.S., Canada and Norway, Japan has yet to implement the technology to commercial scale outside of EOR.
Many of the country’s efforts in this technology are led by an entity known as Japan CCS Co., which is owned by more than 30 local energy firms, including Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (JAPEX), Mitsubishi Corp, and ENEOS. The entity was set up in 2008 to combine the public-private development process and set up the largest-scale demonstration project for carbon capture.
Between April 2016 and November 2020, Japan CCS injected just over 300,000 tons of CO2 derived from industrial sources into two underwater reservoirs that lie 1,100 meters and 2,400 meters below the seabed off the coast of Tomakomai, a town on the south coast of Hokkaido. With the injections completed, the JGC Corp-designed facilities are now monitored for micro-seismicity, marine environment and the movement of the CO2 inside the reservoirs.
Outline of the Tomakomai CCS Project
Source: Japan CCS Co and METI
While risk of CO2 leaks in the seabed is considered to be low, the MOE has started to consider what should be done to better detect leaks, implement appropriate countermeasures and what to do in case of emergencies.
Once these are in place, Japan is expected to choose three best candidate sites for future large-scale CO2 storage. An early announcement may come later this year, with candidates including sites off the coast of Ishikawa and Akita prefectures. Approval from local communities will also be part of the process.
Increasing number of domestic players in CCS
Armed with findings from the early Japan CCS Co. project, a number of Japanese firms have recently instigated their own initiatives.
In September 2020, Kawasaki Heavy Industry revealed that it will install a pilot-scale test facility with a CO2 capture capacity of 40 tons/ day at Kansai Electric’s coal-fired Maizuru power plant in Kyoto. The project is supported by the influential Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), which is known for its CCS studies.
Last October, Toshiba announced that its subsidiary commenced operations of a large-scale CCS facility at a thermal power plant in Fukuoka. Sponsored by MOE, the plant uses palm kernel shells as the primary fuel source, making it the first bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) facility in the country. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) launched a BECCS pilot project in the U.K., at a Drax Group plant, at a similar time.
MHI, one of Japan’s largest creators of energy technology, is hoping to make carbon capture a cornerstone of its shift to new energy amid its struggle to penetrate the market for wind turbines. The company has already built 14 carbon capture facilities globally, including what it claims to be the world’s largest CO2 capture system at Petra Nova Parish’s coal-fired power plant in Texas, which was launched in 2017.
Meanwhile, J-Power is due to start developing a new CO2 storage method, which would enable CO2 storage in shallower ground. Other CCS significant research in Japan is conducted by the state research body, NEDO, and companies such as INPEX, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, and trading house Marubeni. Chemicals and textiles giant, Toray Industries, is working on the development of high-performance membranes for more efficient CO2 capture.
Further down the line, Japanese developments hope to commercialize Direct Air Capture technology, which draws CO2 from the atmosphere for sequestration or use in manufacturing. That technology is not expected to be in practical use until about 2050 after costs drop substantially.
The challenges
While the number of companies and research projects related to CSS has proliferated, the industry is still struggling to bring down the cost of the technology. With current systems, it costs at least ¥8,400/ per ton of CO2. If installed at a coal-fired power plant, the electricity cost would jump above that of solar power. METI is aiming for at least ¥7,000/ ton or less.
The second obstacle faced by Japan is geography and geology. The Japanese archipelago stands on four tectonic plates, which causes frequent earthquakes and therefore limits the number of areas suitable for storage. Unlike the U.S., which utilizes land-based sites, Japan is following the less common Norwegian approach by focusing on undersea storage.
Japanese sites have an underground CO2 storage capacity of 148 billion tons, according to RITE’s calculations. That would be enough to store over a century of Japanese emissions at current rates.
An additional issue for Japan is transport of CO2. In countries like the U.S., the gas is transported by pipeline due to the proximity between emitter and storage site. In Japan, surveys show that while most CO2 emissions originate on the Pacific Ocean side, most suitable storage sites are on the Sea of Japan side. This has persuaded Japan to think seriously about shipping the carbon.
As reported in Japan NRG last week, MHI plans to develop the world’s first commercial carrier of liquid CO2 by 2025. A year earlier, Japan scheduled a test shipment to carry CO2 captured at a coal plant in Kyoto to a facility in Hokkaido, 1,000 kilometers away. This would be a world first and considered to be an edge in export of Japanese technologies abroad.
Potential for Asia exports
Seeing the synergy between CCS and thermal power plants, Japan has eyes on Asian markets. In November 2020, Japan, the U.S., Australia and ASEAN members announced plans to partner in CCS development, an effort that Japan has actively promoted.
Many Asian economies are still largely dependent on thermal power plants. Under emission trading mechanism, Japan hopes to offset its own CO2 emission by assisting with the construction of local CO2 storage. Potential sites for storage will be reviewed this year.
The recent East Asian Summit Energy Ministers Meeting welcomed Japan’s idea to establish an “Asia CCUS Network”, which is expected to become a platform to share knowledge and experience, as well as research on CCS activities in the region.
Still, Japan’s export potential for Asia will depend on the uptake of CCS domestically. So far, without carbon pricing, utilities have been reluctant to invest in high-cost CCS systems for coal and gas-fired generation facilities. A detailed government plan for carbon prices and tax is due to be published later this year.
ANALYSIS
BY MAYUMI WATANABE
Japan to Push Hydro, Geothermal and Biomass to New Pricing Scheme
Hydro, geothermal and biomass power sources are now more price competitive and able to move to the new Feed-in-Premium (FIP) pricing scheme for electricity that Japan will launch in April 2022. This was the recent conclusion of an expert panel advising the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).
The shift to FIP from the current Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) system indicates that the levelized cost of production from those renewables sources is starting to drop in Japan and, in some cases, approach spot market prices. It will also prove to be a divisive moment in renewables, according to industry players, because it makes it harder for small operators to survive. Meanwhile, bigger firms will likely exploit FIP to develop more mature sales and trading strategies and invest in storage.
The recommendations to MET came from the influential Tariff Calculation Committee (TCC), which on Jan. 27 released a roadmap of the transition to FIP.
Under the FIT system, Japan has stimulated a massive wave of investment in renewables, with solar capacity alone more than tripling since 2012. Currently, FIT applies to 93.47 GW of power projects nationwide, of which 58.24 GW has already been brought into operation. Most contracts fix the electricity sales price for a 20-year period.
In the eight years since its launch, the FIT has been applied to over 700,000 power generating units in Japan, which are run by about 600 different entities. FIT also covers residential solar installations, which number around 2.5 million units. To compare, Japan had just 9.16 GW of renewable capacity online before FIT was introduced, according to official data.
The FIT levels are updated every year for each renewable energy source. The new tariff rates take into account the latest information on each generation type’s capital costs, running costs, run rates and other parameters. TCC offers METI guidance on both the tariff levels and the process via which renewables projects can secure the FIT certificate (i.e., via a direct application, capacity auction, or other).
FIP changes
Under the new FIP system, operators will send their electricity output to the Japan Electricity Power Exchange (JEPX) and receive a premium on top of the market’s spot price. The idea is to incentivize operators to offer excess power, retained in storage batteries, during times of strong power demand. The current FIT system, which is isolated from market mechanisms, does not have the same incentives built-in.
The government’s ultimate goal is the termination of both the FIP and FIT so that renewable energy competes against thermal power on an equal footing.
Which renewable energy sources the FIP would apply to has been under deliberation for some time.
According to the TCC, small and middle-sized hydro power, geothermal and biomass plants are a good match for FIP because of their output stability and flexibility. The committee said that each of these energy sources is approaching market competitiveness, and after further cost reductions should suit the FIP system.
As of June 2020, the number of FIT-approved hydro power plants stood at 728. for hydro, 87 in geothermal, and 701 for biomass power plants. After reducing costs further, and when METI defines targets, they should be a much better fit for FIP.
Hydro
As of June 2020, the number of FIT-approved hydro power plants stood at 728. From fiscal year (FY) 2022, the TCC recommends that new hydro plants with capacity of over 1 MW should join the FIP scheme.
At the moment, hydro plants are paid a FIT rate of ¥29/kWh (as per FY2020 numbers), which is twice as high as the price in Germany. However, the medium size and bigger plants still have room to cut costs, the TCC said. Ten plants with capacity of 5 MW or higher are even efficient enough to operate at a cost that’s less than ¥10/kWh, which should allow them to sell their power on the JPEX at a profit. The market’s average spot price in December was ¥13.93/ kWh.
Geothermal
There are 87 geothermal power plants with a FIT certificate in Japan, as of June 2020. Those with a capacity of 1MW or over should be transferred to FIP from FIT from FY2022, according to TCC.
The industry has seen a clear drop facility running costs even though this year (FY2021) costs are expected to be above the FIT rate of ¥40/ kWh, according to the TCC. Despite the overshoot, the committee said it will not loosen the tariffs to reflect higher costs so as not to send a wrong message to the market.
Overall, electricity tariffs should trend down, according to the TCC.
Biomass
Japan had 701 biomass power units registered under the FIT scheme as of June 2020. From FY2022, the bigger plants, as in those with a capacity of 10 MW or higher, should be registered under FIP. The year after, the threshold should be lowered to 1 MW of capacity or higher, according to TCC recommendations.
Biomass power plants under the 10 MW capacity level enjoyed a FIT rate of ¥24/ kWh for FY2020. Larger facilities, at 10 MW or higher capacity, had to put in bids for electricity prices via an auction. The auction-set price was ¥19.6/ kWh.
Onshore Wind
Operators of land-based wind power plants enjoyed a FY2020 FIT rate of ¥18/ kWh, but such prices will be a thing of the past if the segment moves to FIP. The TCC said it sees “potential” for onshore wind to be added to the new pricing scheme and would look for a price point of ¥8-¥9/ kWh.
There are 7,908 wind power facilities that quality for FIT in Japan. Those that are price-competitive will be able to choose to shift to FIP, but this will rule them out from the auction system.
Solar
The majority of FIT-approved renewable energy plants in Japan are in solar. In the new TCC recommendations, those solar projects with a capacity of 1 MW or higher will fall under the FIP system starting in April 2022.
The current FIT rate for solar is determined by auction, which has resulted in a price range of ¥11.5-¥21/ kWh during FY2020. The committee sees this trend as naturally pushing the segment toward FIP.
January price spike affecting shift to FIP
Following the strong price volatility on JPEX during January, which saw prices jump into triple figures for the first time ever from single-digits for most of the last five years, many companies are wary of moving away from state-regulated tariffs and embracing market price exposure.
Several power retailers have already announced plans to close.
This will make METI’s work to move the renewable industry towards FIP terms, and later pure market-based pricing, that much harder. Many in the renewables industry say they believe power futures contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and the EEX are not yet robust or liquid enough to be effective hedging options.
The complicated layering and grading of the FIP system is another issue that will likely slow developments. With additional segregation of price points, the smaller operators argue that the extra administrative burden of price risk management will curtail the number of players in the industry to the bigger companies, which can afford dedicated risk-hedging manpower.
At least two solar players with a portfolio of less than 100 MW have announced or explored an exit from Japan assets in the last few months.
As Japanese officials tout the potential upside of FIP for hydro, geothermal and biomass, they’ll need to make sure operators in those segments do not choose to do the same and exit ahead of the rising cost pressures. While a few large players are starting to emerge in Japan’s solar and wind space, the same still cannot be said for hydro, geothermal or biomass.
GLOBAL VIEW
BY TOM O’SULLIVAN
Below are some of last week’s most important international energy developments monitored by the Japan NRG team because of their potential to impact energy supply and demand, as well as prices. We see the following as relevant to Japanese and international energy investors.
Wind Power:
Daily wind power generation in the U.S. hit a record 1.76m MWh on Dec. 23 accounting for around 17% of total national power generation compared to an annual level of 9%. The previous record of 1.42MWh was set in April 2019.
Almost 18 GW of new U.S. wind projects were installed in 2020, a record, surpassing the previous milestone of 13 GW in 2012. The 2020 additions were driven by developers scheduling completion to qualify for expiring production tax credits.
Oil:
Oil prices enjoyed their best week since October with WTI and Brent rising by $6 to $58 and $60, respectively. Goldman Sachs now predicts oil consumption could hit the pre-pandemic level of 100m barrels a day by August.
U.S. natural gas prices also rose to $2.85 mmbtu last week, 60% higher YoY, because of extreme cold weather in the American northeast.
Rystad Energy is also now projecting demand for oil products in the U.S. to grow by 1 million bpd in 2021 to 19 million bpd.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA):
On Tuesday, the EIA issued its annual energy outlook for 2021, predicting that a return to 2019 levels of U.S. energy consumption will take “years”, with any growth expected to come mainly from electricity and industrial consumption of fuels. Renewables and natural gas are expected to drive increased electricity usage, not coal or nuclear. EIA forecasts that the U.S. will continue to be a “globally significant” producer of crude oil until 2050.
Pipelines:
A U.S. federal court has ruled against the Dakota Access Pipeline for failing to meet environmental approvals. The pipeline has been operating since 2017 and transits oil over a distance of 2,000 km from North Dakota to Illinois
Aviation:
The E.U is expected to issue new guidelines this month outlining a minimum requirement for use of green fuels in aircraft refuelings inside the bloc.
Carbon Prices:
Carbon prices in the E.U. crossed E38 for the first time ever last week as the bloc committed to further emissions cuts.
Rare-Earths:
U.S.-based USA Rare Earths, is considering a market listing that could value the company at over $1 billion. The company is planning to mine lithium in Texas.
China:
1). Open interest in renminbi-denominated oil futures on the Shanghai Energy Exchange increased fourfold YoY in 2020.
2). Chinese oil major CNOOC Ltd announced plans to raise the share of natural gas to half of its total output by 2035, switching from its current oil focus.
South Korea:
1). Kia Motors is exploring options to assemble Apple’s EV in the State of Georgia.
2). South Korea unveiled a $43.2 billion plan to build an 8.2 GW wind power plant by 2030. It would be the world’s largest.
Vietnam:
In a recently published blueprint issued after the just-concluded five-year congress, the ruling Communist Party increased its target national growth rate to the range of 6.5% to 7.0% for 2021-2025, up from the 6% pre-pandemic level.
Thailand:
Chevron continues arbitration negotiations with the Thai government over the Erawan natural gas field that supplies around one-third of Thailand’s gas. It’s due to transfer control to PTT in April 2022.
Myanmar:
The coup on Monday is likely to significantly complicate current and future energy investments, including construction of natural gas and LNG facilities. Japan has traditionally been one of the largest sovereign investors in the country.
India:
Last week, the IEA and India signed a Strategic Partnership Framework to strengthen collaboration in energy security and the clean energy transition. The Framework may lead to eventual IEA membership for India.
Saudi Arabia:
Riyadh is now thought to have attracted 24 multinationals, including Bechtel, to establish regional headquarters in the country.
Oman:
BP will sell a 20% stake in the Khazzan and Ghazeer natural gas blocks to Thailand’s PTT for $2.6 billion.
UAE:
President Biden refused to lift tariffs on aluminum exports from the UAE to the U.S. citing risks for domestic U.S. producers.
Iran:
In a significant escalation, and in contravention of the 2015 Nuclear Agreement, Iran is now thought to have augmented its uranium enrichment capabilities at Nananz, using unapproved centrifuges.
Russia:
The Anti-Corruption Foundation, a Moscow-based NPO with connections to Alexei Navalny, has issued a request to President Biden to further sanction 35 individuals including Rosneft’s Igor Sechin, Gazprom’s Alexei Miller, Oleg Deripaska, and Transneft’s Nikolai Tokarev.
Ethiopia:
The Sudanese government has warned Ethiopia that filling the Renaissance Dam hydropower project in July will directly threaten Sudan’s national security. Sudan believes electricity generation from Sudan’s Merowe Dam and Roseires Dam could negatively impacted the livelihoods of 20 million Sudanese living downstream. Egypt also views the dam as a major threat to its fresh water supplies.
Denmark:
Denmark will construct the world’s first wind energy hub on an artificial island in the North Sea. The 10 GW project will be the largest construction project in Danish history and is expected to be completed by 2033. The first phase of the project is expected to cost $34 billion.
France:
On Wednesday four environmental groups, including Oxfam, successfully sued the French government, which was found guilty by the Administrative Tribunal in Paris of failing to meet its Paris Agreement climate change goals. The tribunal ruled that France failed to reduce greenhouse gases under commitments made in 2015 and was responsible for ecological damage.
UK:
1). BP announced a loss of $5.6 billion for FY2020, its first since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. The company has net debt of $39 billion, with rating agency S&P saying it has insufficient cashflow to support this. BP also has a 20% stake in Rosneft, which is developing new Arctic projects that may require the construction of 6,500 oil wells and 5,400 km of pipeline.
2). Royal Dutch Shell is expected to announce an increased commitment to power trading when it launches a new business strategy next Thursday. It just announced a loss of $22 billion for FY2020, its first ever, and one of the largest in UK corporate history. It has net debt of $75 billion and wrote down assets by $21 billion in 2020.
Brazil:
Vale has agreed to a $7 billion settlement for the Minas Gerais mining disaster in 2019 that killed 270.
U.S.:
1). Chevron and Exxon are thought to have discussed a possible merger last year that would have a created a company with a $350 billion market capitalization and with oil production of 3.5 mbpd.
2). Exxon announced a loss of $20 billion for FY2020, the first in its history. It also announced the establishment of a ‘low carbon solutions’ division that will invest $3 billion through 2025.
3). Only one of President Biden’s energy and infrastructure cabinet appointments have been confirmed so far by the U.S. Senate – Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.
EVENT REPORT
Renewable Energy Institute (REI) RE-Users Summit 2021: Feb. 3
On Wednesday REI hosted over 1,000 Japanese corporations at its annual summit focusing on procurement of clean energy in Japan.
Speakers included Apple’s Global Head of Supplier Clean Energy Program, the president of Audi Japan, the head of Kirin’s Energy Procurement Strategy, a senior METI official from the Electricity Infrastructure Division, representatives from Sony and Aeon, and Minna Denryoku, an independent power retailer.
The agenda focused mainly on certifications for clean energy procurement and structural issues around corporate power purchase agreements in Japan.
While most parties agreed that there was still a shortage of renewable energy in Japan for corporates seeking to switch, a number of positive examples and developments were presented. For example, Kirin outlined firm plans to have 100% of its group electricity come from renewable sources by 2040 and to take ownership of Scope 3 emissions, with an eye of reducing them by 30% by 2030.
The number of RE100 companies in Japan grew to 46 at the end of last year.
The gap between demand from corporates and renewable energy supply will rise to 20 TWh by 2030, BNEF said at the event. Part of the issue is the cost of solar power in Japan, which at $124/ MWh was four times higher than in China, three times up on the U.S., Australia, and is more than double the UK and Germany figures.
EVENTS CALENDAR
Below is a selection of domestic and international events that we believe will have an impact on the Japanese energy and electricity industry.
February |
Approval of Fiscal 2021 Budget by Japanese parliament including energy funding projects; CMC LNG Conference |
March |
10th Anniversary of Fukushima Nuclear Accident; Smart Energy Week – Tokyo; Quarterly OPEC Meeting; Japan LPG Annual Conference; Full completion of all aspects of the multi-year deregulation of Japan’s electricity market; End of 2020/21 Fiscal Year in Japan; |
April |
Japan Atomic Industrial Forum – Annual Nuclear Power Conference; 38th ASEAN Annual Conference-Brunei; Japan LNG & Gas Virtual Summit (DMG)-Tokyo Three crucial by-elections in Hokkaido, Nagano & Hiroshima – April 25th |
May |
Bids close in first tender for commercial offshore wind projects in Japan; Prime Minister Suga to visit the U.S.-tentative |
June |
Release of New Japan National Basic Energy Plan-2021; G7 Meeting – U.K. Forum for China-Africa Cooperation Summit (Senegal) |
July |
Tokyo Metropolitan Govt. Assembly Elections; Commencement of 2020 Tokyo Olympics |
August |
Hydrogen Ministerial Conference in conjunction with IEA |
September |
Ruling LDP Presidential Election; UN General Assembly Annual Meeting that is expected to address energy/climate challenges; IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings (multilateral and central banks expected to take further action on emissions disclosures and lending to fossil fuel projects); End of H1 FY2021 Fiscal Year in Japan; Japan-Russia: Eastern Economic Forum (Vladivostok)-tentative |
October |
Last possible month for holding Japan’s 2021 General Election; METI Sponsored LNG Producer/Consumer Conference; Innovation for Cool Earth Forum – Tokyo Conference; Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) – Tokyo Conference; G20 Meeting-Italy |
November |
COP26 (Glasgow); Asian Development Bank (‘ADB’) Annual Conference; Japan-Canada Energy Forum; East Asia Summit (EAS) – Brunei |
December |
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum – New Zealand; Final details expected from METI on proposed unbundling of natural gas pipeline network scheduled for 2022. |
DATA
Japan Oil Price
Crude Imports Vs Processed Crude
Monthly Oil Import Volume (Mbpd)
Monthly Crude Processed (Mbpd)
Domestic Fuel Sales
SOURCES: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), Ministry of Finance, and the Petroleum Association of Japan
Japan LNG Price
LNG Imports: Japan Total vs Gas Utilities Only
Total LNG Imports (M t)
LNG Imports by Gas Firms Only (M t)
City Gas Sales – Total (M m3)
City Gas Sales by Sector (M m3)
SOURCES: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI),
Ministry of Finance
Japan Total Power Demand (GWh)
Current Vs Historical Demand (GWh)
Day-Ahead Spot Electricity Prices
Day-Ahead Vs Day Time Vs Peak Time
LNG Imports by Electricity Utilities
LNG Stockpiles of Electricity Utilities
SOURCES: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), and the Japan Electric Power Exchange
ACRONYMS
METI |
The Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry |
mmbtu |
Million British Thermal Units |
ANRE |
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy |
mb/d |
Million barrels per day |
TEPCO |
Tokyo Electric Power Company |
mtoe |
Million Tons of Oil Equivalent |
KEPCO |
Kansai Electric Power Company |
kWh |
Kilowatt hours (electricity generation volume) |
EPCO |
Electricity power company, refers to the 10 regional utilities that used to control all parts of the Japanese power industry | ||
NEDO |
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization | ||
JCC |
Japan Crude Cocktail | ||
JKM |
Japan Korea Market, the Platt’s LNG benchmark | ||
CCUS |
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage | ||
CCUR |
Carbon Capture, Utilization and |
NEWS
・Japan Govt. to put ¥1 trillion into battery development; Toyota’s doubts about EV future is all bluff – it’s ready to go electric
・OPINION: What was behind the energy crisis? Not the cold snap or solar panels; Business model of new electricity retailers blamed for crisis; METI to bail out retailers; Minister in charge of reforms pushes METI to improve power market info transparency
・FGE’s Feshariki tells forum: 2024-28 will be golden age for oil