June 26, 2023
NEWS
TOP
ENERGY TRANSITION & POLICY
ELECTRICITY MARKETS
OIL, GAS & MINING
ANALYSIS
OIL REFINING INDUSTRY SEEKS ITS PLACE
IN THE ENERGY TRANSITION
Thanks to energy efficiency, climate concerns and a shrinking population, Japan’s oil consumption declined by a third since 2000. Japan’s top three refining companies are now testing clean energy alternatives and pushing into new business areas to cut emissions and find revenue streams beyond oil. The main challenge is to transition and remain profitable. Japan NRG takes a look at how the domestic oil majors hope to reinvent themselves in a new green era.
LNG: A SUPER-CHILLED GAS THAT’S TOO
HOT FOR BIG UTILITIES TO HANDLE
Since electricity retail was liberalized in 2016, LNG is a less attractive fuel for the major power utilities. METI has pushed the EPCOs to feed more volume into the wholesale power market, rather than selling directly to consumers. This has stimulated a vibrant power trading sector in Tokyo. However, it also turned gas-fired stations into a cumbersome asset class. The mismatch might see LNG futures contract trading take off. Or, it might lead to an even faster decline in Japan’s gas-fired generation.
GLOBAL VIEW
A wrap of top energy news from around the world.
EVENTS SCHEDULE
A selection of events to keep an eye on in 2023.
PUBLISHER
K. K. Yuri Group
Editorial Team
Yuriy Humber (Editor-in-Chief)
John Varoli (Senior Editor, Americas)
Mayumi Watanabe (Japan)
Wilfried Goossens (Events, global)
Kyoko Fukuda (Japan)
Filippo Pedretti (Japan)
Regular Contributors
Chisaki Watanabe (Japan)
Takehiro Masutomo (Japan)
Events
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OFTEN USED ACRONYMS
METI | The Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry | mmbtu | Million British Thermal Units | |
MoE | Ministry of Environment | mb/d | Million barrels per day | |
ANRE | Agency for Natural Resources and Energy | mtoe | Million Tons of Oil Equivalent | |
NEDO | New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization | kWh | Kilowatt hours (electricity generation volume) | |
TEPCO | Tokyo Electric Power Company | FIT | Feed-in Tariff | |
KEPCO | Kansai Electric Power Company | FIP | Feed-in Premium | |
EPCO | Electric Power Company | SAF | Sustainable Aviation Fuel | |
JCC | Japan Crude Cocktail | NPP | Nuclear power plant | |
JKM | Japan Korea Market, the Platt’s LNG benchmark | JOGMEC | Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security | |
CCUS | Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage | |||
OCCTO | Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators | |||
NRA | Nuclear Regulation Authority | |||
GX | Green Transformation |
GX Promotion Act to take effect June 30
(Government statement, June 20)
TAKEAWAY: Some critics say the Act is about distributing funds to politically vocal sectors. However, the Act has the potential to be more effective than the Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures, which affirmed Japan’s 2050 net zero goal.
Starting in July, METI will set up several cross-industry and public-private sector frameworks to identify projects for financing and to craft common industry standards. As it seeks to catalyze Japan’s shift to new transition technologies, the Act will most likely lead to major changes in how businesses operate and develop.
EGC finalizes directives to power utilities accused of cartel
(Government statement, June 19)
TAKEAWAY: The antitrust charges against Chubu Electric and its affiliate Chubu Electric Miraiz totaled ¥27.4 billion, which is much less than the estimate made by the shareholders. That difference may become a discussion point.
ANRE to work on measures to limit renewable curbs by year’s end
(Government statement, June 21)
Japan to propose CCS rules with ASEAN, Australia
(Nikkei Asia, June 22)
TAKEAWAY: CCS, alongside other energy technologies such as hydrogen and ammonia generation, is one of the key components of the AZEC strategy towards decarbonization. Japan’s role in outlining clear CCS regulations, as well as technical support to ASEAN countries, is to further strengthen its energy leadership in the area.
TAKEAWAY: Regulatory and policy uncertainties cloud CCS’s outlook. Recently, state energy and metals resource development company, JOGMEC, presented an outline of how the CCS industry could develop in the country and the broader Asian region by the end of this decade, but Japan has yet to present regulations for the burgeoning sector. Transparent and clear rules will be needed to develop the above non-binding MoU into a legally binding business agreement.
Perovskite solar tech added to national growth strategy
(Government statement, June 16)
TAKEAWAY: Presently, research institutes worldwide are competing to develop the highest PSC power efficiencies. The Japanese govt is aiming to change the game by being the first country to commercialize the tech on a massive scale.
Cluster-type wind turbines emerge as new energy source
(Nikkei, June 18)
TAKEAWAY: Some experts say the cost-effectiveness of simply enlarging the blades for greater output is now approaching its limit. Large blades spin over 100 meters per second. When blades are spinning at such a high speed, even raindrops can damage them. And the noise emitted by huge, fast-spinning blades is also a problem.
Source: Riamwind
Japanese investors warming to ‘transition bonds’
(Nikkei Asia, June 19)
Ammonia co-firing most suitable to Japan: Analysts say
(Japan NRG, June 20)
TAKEAWAY: ANRE says NOx release for 20% ammonia co-firing can be controlled with present technologies. JERA is conducting a pilot 20% ammonia co-firing at the Hekinan Unit 4 thermal plant this fiscal year.
NEDO awarded funding for 32 hydrogen projects
(New Energy Business, June 19)
TAKEAWAY: There are too many projects and technologies to mention and clearly some are more niche than others. Still, it shows that there is a strong interest in the domestic industry to develop demand-side technologies for hydrogen. Ultimately, this will make or break the rise of the H2 economy. Without an adequate number of users / buyers, it’s hard to see the cost of producing or importing hydrogen declining. The timelines in this latest round of projects suggests that mass adoption of hydrogen technologies (in their various forms, including via ammonia) is seen as more realistic in the early 2030s.
TAKEAWAY Experts have noted that the EU’s 2030 green hydrogen goals are hard to realize due to uncertainty in the regulatory framework, which hinders investments. Achieving these goals will be challenging unless national governments expedite authorization and provide financial assistance. Also, the lack of regulatory transparency and uncertain demand impede final investment decisions. Mitsubishi’s new company will soon face such challenges.
NRA chief, TEPCO execs meet on Kashiwazaki nuclear security
(Japan NRG, June 22)
TAKEAWAY: There is a race against time at TEPCO to placate the NRA and become an operator of a working nuclear power generation facility again. The company’s official timeline sys that Unit 7 of the Kashiwazaki Kariwa site (1.35 GW) will be online in October. The NRA cares little for these deadlines and will likely ignore it. However, a decision on whether the station will run this winter or not will need to be taken within the next two to three months. This will significantly affect both Tokyo area power supply and TEPCO’s financials.
Mitsui Oil and Chevron to do pilot tests for new geothermal tech
(Company statement, June 22)
TAKEAWAY: Japan’s hot spring (onsen) industry opposes the development of geothermal power because it fears that extracting heat from the ground may cause a decline in water levels and temperatures at their facilities. Onsen owners argue that water sources, including hot springs, are fragile and vulnerable to overexploitation. New technologies that do not rely on direct extraction of hot water or steam, such as the one discussed above, may then convince the skeptical onsen industry.
Honda, Ford, Nissan, etc to develop standards for blockchain ‘’battery passports’’
(Nikkei Asia, June 21)
Idemitsu to increase supply capacity for all solid electrolytes for next-gen batteries
(Company statement, June 19)
Researchers tout methane-eating bacteria in cutting rice farming emissions
(International Journal of Systematic and Evolutionary Microbiology, 2023)
TAKEAWAY: Scientists knew about the bacteria for decades but it did not have a name until recently. Research on natural methane cuts without major environmental impact is still premature, but if developed it could diversify methane reduction techniques in food chains.
Chubu Electric began talks about waste incineration, methanation, and biomass power
(New Energy Business, June 20)
JAL signed purchase agreement with Shell for SAF in Los Angeles
(Company statement, June 16)
Sales volume of new power market entrants drops 21% in February
(Denki Shimbun, June 22)
TAKEAWAY: This is the lowest market share that new market entrants have had since at least 2020. The major power utilities saw their market share erode since 2016 to less than 78% at one point. In the last 18 months, due to wild swings in fuel and electricity prices, many new suppliers have withdrawn from the market or stopped taking on new customers. This has helped the EPCOs, which have nonetheless also struggled to stay profitable in the current environment.
JEPX to adopt a Belgian settlement calculation engine for its spot market
(Denki Shimbun, June 21)
J-Power in trouble over Oma NPP construction
(FACTA, June edition)
TAKEAWAY: Oma NPP is designed to be the world’s first full MOX (Mixed Oxide fuel, a blend of plutonium and uranium) commercial reactor, with one of the largest capacities in Japan, at 1.38 GW. Construction began in 2008, but was suspended after the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The project’s start date, initially set for 2012, has been pushed to 2030. A full suspension of this project could spell the end of J-Power’s ambition to become a nuclear power utility, but it’s unlikely that the govt will let the company flounder.
KEPCO to restart Takahama Units 1 and 2 this summer
(Company statement, June 21)
TAKEAWAY: The restart would be a fairly significant landmark for the nuclear sector since it could bring all of Kansai Electric’s seven units into operation. Takahama NPP Units 1 and 2 are among the oldest reactors currently certified to operate in Japan. So far, the utility reported that it has safely loaded all of the uranium fuel rods into Unit 1.
Akita’s second round for offshore wind – Mitsui withdraws and Itochu joins
(Diamond, June 20)
KEPCO and JR West agree on PPA and renewable energy supply
(Company statement, June 19)
AIST, NREL, and Fraunhofer say global solar PV will reach 75 TW by 2050
(New Energy Business, June 16)
Blue Capital Management plans 51 MW solar plant in Miyagi
(Company statement, June 16)
Abalance and SPC connect solar plants, start selling electricity
(Company statement, June 14)
NAC International establishes Canadian subsidiary and acquires assets of NEP
(Company statement, June 19)
Juwi Shizen Energy forms operation monitoring center in Miyagi
(Company statement, June 19)
Azbil and KEPCO collaborate on equipment abnormality detection with AI system
(Company statement, June 19)
JOGMEC seeks users of proprietary mining and hydrogen production technologies
(Government statement, June 21)
Mitsubishi invests in Marimaca Copper Project, Chile
(Company statement, June 22)
Itochu and SKY Perfect begin oil spill monitoring service in Qatar
(Company statement, June 19)
LNG stocks rise to 2.37 million tons
(Government data, June 21)
BY KYOKO FUKUDA
Oil Refining Industry Seeks its Place in the Energy Transition
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) globally have more than tripled in the last two years and accounted for over 20% of all car sales in major markets like China and Europe. In Japan, the shift to battery-only EVs has been slower, but the future of cars powered solely by fossil fuels is clearly limited, especially as more governments pass laws mandating an end to their sales.
How much petroleum products we’ll continue to consume over the coming decades is still the subject of much debate. But there’s a concerted push across road, air and sea transport to move away from crude oil-based fuels. Japan’s oil-fired generators are largely slated for decommissioning, and the nation’s 2050 carbon neutrality goal is now enshrined in law.
Thanks to better energy efficiency, climate concerns and a shrinking population, Japan’s oil consumption has declined by a third since the turn of the century. There are still 21 active refineries, capable of processing about 3.3 million barrels/ day, but within five years these operations will be subject to a new carbon levy that the government wants to help pay for a ¥150 trillion national decarbonization program, the GX.
As far as the oil refining companies are concerned, they’ve seen enough. Japan’s top three refining companies are now actively testing clean energy alternatives and pushing into new business directions to reduce their total emissions and find revenue streams beyond oil. The main challenge for the sector, however, is to transition in such a way as to remain profitable.
Japan NRG takes a look at how the domestic oil majors hope to reinvent themselves in a new green era.
Company | Refinery Name | Location (Pref.) | Production Capacity
(Barrels/day) |
Idemitsu Kosan | Hokkaido | Hokkaido | 150,000 |
Chiba | Chiba | 247,000 | |
Aichi | Aichi | 160,000 | |
Toa Oil | Keihin | Kanagawa | 70,000 |
Seibu Oil | Yamaguchi | Yamaguchi | 120,000 |
ENEOS | Sendai | Miyagi | 145,000 |
Kawasaki | Kanagawa | 247,000 | |
Negishi | Kanagawa | 150,000 | |
Sakai | Osaka | 141,000 | |
Wakayama | Wakayama | 120,400 | |
Mizushima | Okayama | 350,000 | |
Marifu | Yamaguchi | 120,000 | |
Ooita | Ooita | 136,000 | |
Kashima Oil | Kashima | Ibaraki | 203,100 |
Osaka Kokusai | Chiba | Chiba | 129,000 |
Cosmo Oil | Chiba | Chiba | 177,000 |
Yokkaichi | Mie | 255,000 | |
Sakai | Osaka | 100,000 | |
Fuji Oil | Sodegaura | Chiba | 143,000 |
Showa Yokkaichi Sekiyu | Yokkaichi | Mie | 255,000 |
Taiyo Oil | Shikoku | Ehime | 138,000 |
<Source: Petroleum Association of Japan>
ENEOS
In the past 20 years, Japan’s crude oil imports and processing volume have decreased by nearly 30%. In FY2022, Japan imported about 156 billion liters of crude oil, mainly from the Middle East, and processed 3.4 million barrels per day. Refineries’ operating rate was 79.2%.
Japan’s largest oil company is ENEOS, with group sales of ¥15 trillion in FY2022 and profit of ¥281.3 billion. Founded in 1888 as Nippon Oil, ENEOS has pledged to reduce 1.5 million tons of CO2 (Scope 1 and 2) compared to FY2009, with an additional reduction of 1.2 million tons (Scope 3) in its supply chains.
Eager to find its place in the future energy landscape, ENEOS is investing heavily in renewable energy such as solar, wind, and biomass power generation. In January 2022, it acquired one of the domestic solar industry pioneers Japan Renewable Energy Corporation (JRE), adding 82 renewables sites to the group’s own biomass, solar and wind assets.
ENEOS also promotes hydrogen energy and has installed 47 hydrogen refueling stations nationwide. Among other R&D directions are ways to reduce CO2 emissions from the company’s fossil-based products such as kerosene, lubricants, etc.
One of ENEOS’ most ambitious projects is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). By 2030, Japan intends to replace 10% of national jet fuel consumption with SAF. In April 2022, ENEOS submitted to METI its plan to produce SAF, in cooperation with TotalEnergies. Their original idea was to convert the Negishi refinery into a SAF production facility with an annual capacity of 400 million liters. In November 2022, the plan was modified to utilize the Wakayama refinery. First production is now expected in 2026, a one-year delay.
In March, ENEOS joined forces with AMPOL Australia Petroleum, the country’s largest petrol supplier, to produce biofuel in Australia. Their goal is to develop production with an annual capacity of 500 million liters of SAF and establish a Japan-Australia SAF supply chain.
The government expects Japan’s domestic SAF demand to be in the range of 2.5 to 5.6 billion liters by 2030, and 23 billion liters by 2050. So far, however, only about 63 million liters or 0.03% of global demand is serviced with SAF.
As with nearly every area of the energy transition, the main sticking point is cost. SAF production carries costs that are two to 16 times higher than conventional jet fuels. The hope is that R&D and more innovations will bring down costs. But that hope remains ambiguous.
Cosmo Oil
Cosmo Oil was established in 1986 by merging Maruzen Oil, Daikyo Oil, and Cosmo Oil. Total sales in FY2022 were ¥2.8 trillion with profit of ¥67.9 billion attributable to owners of the parent company. Similar to ENEOS, Cosmo aims to reduce its CO2 emissions, as stated in its plan for 2018-2022. In 2021, Cosmo emitted 490,000 tons of CO2 less than in 2013.
Over the coming decade, Cosmo’s strategy for carbon neutrality calls for wider use of LNG (instead of dirtier fossil fuels like coal) and a shift to biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia, and low emission materials. Also, Cosmo wants to deploy more CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) technology to increase the recovery factor of crude oil, claiming that this too is a way to lower overall emissions from the sector by recycling CO2.
Cosmo is also keen to tap the potential of wind. In 1996, Cosmo was among the first movers into wind generation in Japan when it installed two 400 kW wind turbines in Yamagata. It is now building wind farms under the brand name of Cosmo Eco Power. So far, Cosmo has installed 149 wind turbines across Japan with a total capacity of 308 MW. Cosmo hopes to win some tenders in the offshore wind space, and has set itself the goal of assembling 1.5 GW of wind power capacity by 2030.
Recently, Cosmo also added the SAF business to its 2030 strategy. It aims to start commercial operations in the sector by 2024/25 when it could supply as much as 30 million liters of SAF. The volumes could rise to 300 million liters by 2030.
This May, Cosmo began building its first SAF production line at the Sakai oil refinery. It will process waste cooking oil from restaurants and other facilities and blend it with regular fuel. The Sakai facility also produces bio-naphtha and renewable diesel for bio-plastics.
In the SAF business, Cosmo will work with JGC (an engineering firm with SAF production technology), Revo International (as the collector of SAF raw materials), and Saffaire Sky Energy (SAF consumer). Cosmo and JGC have set up a JV to run the business in which they each own 48%.
To hedge its bets, Cosmo is exploring another SAF production process with trading house Mitsui & Co. The two companies are mulling setting up production of 220 million liters of ethanol-based SAF by 2027 with no factory location decided so far.
Source: IEA, CC BY 4.0
Idemitsu
Idemitsu, Japan’s second largest oil refiner, was founded in 1911 selling lubricant oils. The company’s sales in FY2022 were ¥6.7 trillion, with a profit of ¥434.5 billion. In November 2022, Idemitsu announced its mid-term business plan for 2023-2025, including a 2050 decarbonization strategy.
Idemitsu intends to build a carbon neutral energy supply chain around green hydrogen, ammonia, and other synthetic fuels. It also wants to establish a plastic recycling system; shift from petrochemicals to bio-chemicals; establish EV and Li-ion battery businesses; and expand its renewable energy business and solar panel recycling.
Idemitsu owns 1.8 GW of power generation, of which 700 MW is renewables.
Currently, 95% of the company’s profit comes from fossil-fuel-related businesses, but the goal is to reduce that to 70% by 2025, and 50% by 2030. This transition includes shutting down Seibu Oil’s refining facilities and integrating Toa Oil as a 100% subsidiary. The Tokuyama factory in Yamaguchi Pref has already stopped refining, and will be turned into a terminal to import ammonia in the late 2020’s. The location’s LPG tanks might be used as ammonia storage tanks.
At first, Idemitsu wants to focus on bringing more new energy businesses to a commercial scale and profit, hoping for a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7% in 2030. By the 2040s, the company expects that its primary business profile will be in carbon-free ammonia, carbon-free hydrogen, synthetic fuels, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).
Like its domestic rivals, Idemitsu has big expectations for the SAF business. It plans to start producing 100 million liters of SAF at the Chiba refinery by 2026, and expand that with another 500 million liters of capacity across several facilities by 2030.
Of the nine main SAF production processes known today, Idemitsu seems to prefer alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), followed by cellulosic fuels. Idemitsu wants to import bioethanol for raw materials to produce SAF utilizing existing terminals and tanks.
In terms of investments, Idemitsu has set aside ¥290 billion for establishing new businesses in the next three years, which is close to half of its total ¥690 billion budget for the period.
No quick solution
The general consensus is that the oil refining business will be around for another 30 years at least, but there is little consensus around the size of that business in the coming decades. It makes sense for Japan’s refining majors to start laying foundations for the future.
The difficulties they face are the relatively low ROIC in new energy sectors such as solar or wind power generation, and the high costs associated with new fuels such as hydrogen and its derivatives. Here is where government regulation may help.
METI is planning to mandate that all international flights arriving in Japan use at least a 10% SAF blend. That would create a ready market for the oil refiners, which will surely look to the state to provide similar support elsewhere.
ANALYSIS
BY JAPAN NRG TEAM
LNG: A Super-Chilled Gas That’s Too Hot for Big Utilities to Handle
In the last five years, Japan’s LNG imports have been on the decline. The reasons often cited are LNG’s cost, the restart of nuclear capacity, and, of course, climate action. However, there’s one other factor diminishing Japan’s appetite for the super-chilled fuel: liberalization of the power market.
Since electricity retail was completely opened up in 2016, the market dynamics have changed. In addition to fostering competition in generation, METI used the 2016 reform to push the big utilities (EPCOs) to feed more of their volumes into the wholesale power market, rather than selling directly to consumers. This has stimulated a vibrant power trading sector in Tokyo. However, it has also made gas-fired stations a more cumbersome asset class.
Put simply, the fuel for an LNG-fired power plant must be secured at least two months before it’s burned to produce electricity. In contrast, in a system where a significant volume of electricity is sold on an exchange, the (almost) fixed level of power demand only becomes clear a day before. That’s not enough to significantly adjust the operations of a thermal power plant. But while coal and oil can be kept in reserve for another day, Japan’s LNG storage options are limited and very short term. Thus, any gas fuel surpluses or shortages become a cost burden.
Keen to protect energy security, the government is trying to find solutions. Among them is a strong push for electricity market participants to embrace power derivatives. Another is a ploy to bring greater transparency to wholesale power trading.
Whether these will be enough, however, is unclear. The mismatch may finally see LNG futures contract trading take off in Tokyo. Or, an even faster decline in Japan’s gas-fired generation.
Changing fundamentals
Japanese LNG import volumes are down almost 14% in the last five years, but the nation still ranks as the top global buyer, with 72 million tons shipped to Japan in 2022. However, the pace of decline is accelerating. The volumes for the first four months of this year are 15% less than the five-year average for the same period.
There are many factors behind this. One is the mild revival in nuclear generation. Japan has nine reactors online today, several units more than a few years ago. Still, online nuclear plants are limited to just three regions: Kansai, Shikoku and Kyushu.
Recent crises, especially in January 2021 when there was trouble with delivering LNG cargoes to Japan, made LNG the most volatile of the major power fuels over the last three years. Also, its price hit hitherto unimaginable levels in 2022 after sanctions against Russia upended global energy markets.
In addition, the global LNG market remains tight; geopolitics means that future supply of Russian LNG to Japan is uncertain; and investments in future upstream and midstream projects often run up against climate considerations.
Japanese utilities have reported plans to decommission over 26 GW of gas-fired capacity in the next ten years or so. While there are also plans to build new units, which should make the net decline much smaller, the drop is still significant. It also aligns with the latest Basic Energy Strategy that forecasts a halving of gas-fired generation in the nation’s power mix by 2030.
EPCO perspective
From the viewpoint of big power utilities, gas generation is less attractive than it once was. While GHG emissions from burning LNG are nearly half that of coal, when it comes to flexibility the latter offers more latitude even before global market fundamentals are considered.
Since 2016, METI has rolled out a number of power trading platforms to mirror changes in the competitive landscape. The key one is the JEPX wholesale electricity trading exchange, also known as the spot market.
It operates on a day-ahead basis, which means that demand becomes clear only a day earlier, based on plans submitted by retailers for the following 24 hours. The time between when a plan is submitted and the actual delivery of electricity is known as “Gate Close”.
Source: METI
The majority of LNG volumes are secured on long-term contracts that run for a decade or more. Even when sourced on the spot market, it takes several months to contract an LNG delivery and agree terms. In Japan, the minimum time between securing the fuel and when it is used, as per the reporting process to METI, is two months. That period is known as the “Fuel Gate Close”.
Before electricity market liberalization, EPCOs were responsible for all power generation and delivery. That allowed them to plan which power stations to deploy at what time and for how long. Adjustments could be made without significant loss, since all of the assets belonged to the same company, which also balanced and transmitted the power.
In today’s electricity market, EPCOs only have an 80% share of sales. Plus, the grid operations are supposed to be neutral and, in times of surplus, in favor of renewables generation. That does not bode well for EPCO’s mostly thermal power plants and leaves the big utilities with much less room for internal adjustment to operations.
What makes the issue more poignant is that the EPCOs can’t store LNG for more than two weeks. Unlike Europe, Japan doesn’t have underground gas storage due to a dearth of used gas fields and unsuitable geology. Also, there are no direct pipeline links to other countries, which might allow for minor adjustment in volumes, and no centralized gas pipeline network to move the fuel around the country as a balancing tool.
The additional electricity trading platforms, such as the Balancing Market, are not considered deep or liquid enough to cover the mismatches. In the end, the financial losses that come with buying too much or too little LNG are borne by both generators and eventually retailers, which translates into higher electricity prices for consumers.
Solutions
One way to avoid losses would be through futures contracts. That’s one reason METI has vigorously pushed all power retailers to embrace risk-hedging in the derivatives market. The two major platforms in Japan are the EEX and TOCOM.
EEX, which hosts around 90% of the electricity futures trading in Japan, reported a rapid rise in trading volume and market participants in the past two years, and especially in the last six months.
Source: EEX
EEX had record trading volumes in February 2023. The volume in the first five months of this year (7,632 GWh) has already surpassed last year’s total (6,745 GWh).
Still, even with such rapid growth, Japan’s ratio of futures trading compared to the spot wholesale market (JEPX) is only about 6.7% on a year-to-date basis, according to EEX. In mature power markets, the derivatives volume is several times bigger than the physical volume.
To promote the adoption of power futures by market participants, METI plans to start disclosing how much retailers are using hedging tools. That would make clear which retailers are making the most effort to stabilize electricity prices, according to the logic of state officials.
There’s another lever the ministry has in mind. Starting 2025, METI will mandate retailers to submit data to OCCTO to demonstrate how dependent they are on buying electricity on the spot JEPX market (as opposed to meeting their customer contract obligations via own generation facilities). The ministry believes that collecting data on retailers’ JEPX reliance will bring more transparency to the industry and help all stakeholders.
LNG derivatives to take off?
The other end of the stick would be to hedge the risks that EPCOs take in buying LNG fuel through a derivatives market. TOCOM, now part of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, launched yen-denominated LNG contracts in spring of 2022. The cash-settled derivative is purely a financial instrument with no link to physical delivery of LNG.
The timing of TOCOM’s offering was unfortunate. With markets in crisis mode after Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, LNG supply, prices and logistics were thrown into turmoil. This made the financial instrument too hot to handle.
The demand for hedging LNG risk, however, was clearly there. Later in 2022, Tokyo-based energy marketplace operator enechain Corp offered to create a pooling system through which smaller power retailers could band together and purchase the equivalent of one LNG cargo. Enechain sees interest in such an aggregate system, but admits that it would still hedge only a small portion of the LNG volumes that Japan imports.
From the government’s standpoint, larger solutions are required. As METI promotes the wider use of electricity futures, officials will find it convenient to support the emergence of a similar market in LNG. If not, EPCO’s interest in maintaining a sizable LNG-fired asset base will wane.
BY JOHN VAROLI
Below are some of last week’s most important international energy developments monitored by the Japan NRG team because of their potential to impact energy supply and demand, as well as prices. We see the following as relevant to Japanese and international energy investors.
China/ Oil demand
The world’s top crude importer will see demand grow this year, but less than expected due to increased EV sales. The country’s oil demand will reach 743 mmt this year, equivalent to around 15 mbpd. In 2019, that figure was 10 mbpd.
Germany/ LNG imports
State-owned SEFE signed a 20-year deal to import 2.25 million tons of LNG annually from Venture Global LNG on the Gulf of Mexico. The companies did not disclose the price of the deal, but U.S. gas is much more expensive than Russian supplies.
New York/ Grid modernization
Grid operators plan the $3.3 billion Long Island transmission project to bring 3 GW of offshore wind energy to the state. However, that still won’t accommodate the 2035 target of 9 GW of offshore wind energy.
Qatar/ LNG deal
China National Petroleum Corp signed a 27-year deal with QatarEnergy to purchase 4 million tons of LNG. CNPC will also take a 5% stake in Qatar’s expansion project in its North Field, the world’s biggest natural gas reservoir.
South Africa/ Green hydrogen
South Africa, Netherlands and Denmark launched a $1 billion green hydrogen fund. South Africa’s energy transition envisages setting up an ecosystem and export hub for green hydrogen. President Ramaphosa said this requires $17 billion.
Texas/ Permian basin
Civitas Resources will acquire oil and gas operations in the Permian Basin managed by NGP Energy Capital for $4.7 billion. High inflation and greater focus on investor returns limited shale growth last year, but in 2023 shale oil supply is expected to grow.
Ukraine/ Energy grid
Ukraine will make major repairs to its power system to prepare for another winter of possible devastating Russian air strikes. Blackouts still remain common in parts of the country.
UK/ Geothermal energy
The country’s first deep geothermal energy project in nearly four decades began operations. Reaching almost 5 km below the surface, the well at the Eden Project in Cornwall will tap into waters with 200°C temperatures.
UK/ Nuclear power
Approval of the planned Sizewell C nuclear plant is lawful, London’s High Court ruled, dismissing a legal challenge. The NPP is owned by French energy giant EDF and has a capacity of about 3.2 GW.
U.S./ Solar power
A new venture by solar panel maker Vikram Solar (India) will invest up to $1.5 billion in the U.S. solar energy supply chain, starting next year with a factory in Colorado.
U.S./ Power grid
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corp warn that power plants remain vulnerable to cold weather. About 7 GW was unable to run in cold weather in late December across the Midwest and Eastern regions, leading to rolling power outages of more than 5 GW in the Southeast.
A selection of domestic and international events we believe will have an impact on Japanese energy
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NEWS
・GX Promotion Act to take effect June 30; a boon for carbon trading and pricing, GX bonds, and more
・Sales volume of new power suppliers down 21% in February;
their total market share fell to the lowest in three years
・JEPX to adopt a Belgian settlement calculation engine for its spot market; software already used in 26 European countries